🎄Banks & Materials - 14 Christmas Crackers
As we head into the final days before Christmas, U.S. equities continue to grind higher — but beneath the surface, leadership is shifting fast.
Quantmatix signals flagged this rotation last week, and it’s now accelerating: Financials and Materials are strengthening sharply, while Energy and mega-cap Tech are losing momentum.
This is not noise — it’s a statistically meaningful regime change.
🏦 Sector Momentum Check
Financials & Insurance 🏦
• 96% of banks strengthening (vs. 66% current regime)
• 85% of insurers strengthening (vs. 55% current regime)
Materials 🧱
• 89% strengthening (vs. 65% current regime)
• 19 positive reversals vs. 2 negative — one of the largest weekly shifts of 2025
Losing Momentum ⚠️
• Energy ⛽ — 38% strengthening (vs. 67% current regime)
• Tech Hardware 💻 — 29% strengthening (vs. 40% current regime)
• Pharma 💊 — 41% strengthening (vs. 74% current regime)
🎯 TEVO High-Conviction Trades
~18-day horizon | 68% back-tested win rate
✅ Long Ideas
🛡️ Kinsale Capital — Response anticipated +6.01%, 83% probability
⚖️ Burford Capital — Response anticipated +7.67%, 76% probability
🛒 eBay — Response anticipated +7.12%, 79% probability
🏠 FirstService Corp — Response anticipated +5.50%, 76% probability
📊 RELX Group — Response anticipated +4.66%, 77% probability
Additional Longs: Coway +6.63% (71%) · Chemed +5.66% (72%) · Royal Caribbean +5.45% (77%)
❌ Short Ideas
🧬 Kymera Therapeutics — Response anticipated -25.0%, 64% probability
🧪 Revolution Medicines — Response anticipated -11.24%, 75% probability
🔧 Amkor Technology — Response anticipated -14.83%, 63% probability
🛢️ Transocean — Response anticipated -10.19%, 74% probability
Additional Shorts: Applied Materials -10.58% (55%) · EnerSys -7.73% (54%)
🔮 Quantmatix Outlook
When 19 Materials stocks flip positive in a single week and 16 Energy stocks flip negative, it signals structural rotation, not short-term volatility.
📌 What the data says:
Sectors with 85–96% strengthening breadth still have room to run
Lagging sectors are now 25–40 percentage points below current regime momentum
Dispersion is widening — stock selection matters more than beta
Positioning Tilt
✅ Overweight: Banks, Insurance, Materials
⚙️ Selective: Software
❌ Underweight: Energy, overextended Tech, Biotech
Disclaimer:
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