🛍️ QM Trades Insight: XRT Follow-Up — Retail Weakness Playing Out as Forecast
🛍️ QM Trades Insight: XRT Follow-Up — Retail Weakness Playing Out as Forecast
The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is doing exactly what Quantmatix analytics warned of last week — underperformance versus the S&P 500 (SPX) is unfolding in real time.
📊 ETF Performance
XRT fell -1.89% yesterday vs SPX +0.36%
Today (so far): XRT -1.64% vs SPX -0.57%
The Negative Weekly Relative Signal, highlighted in last Friday’s note, confirmed at the close — reinforcing the Quantmatix read of a medium-term shift toward weakness in the retail complex.
🔎 Under the Hood — Performance of Highlighted Stocks
✅ Confirmed Negative Reversals
CompanyPerformance Since FridayCaleres-9.6%Grocery Outlet-1.8%O’Reilly Automotive-2.4%Burlington Stores+0.8%Valvoline Inc-2.7%
⏳ Pending Negative Reversals
CompanyPerformance Since FridayAmerican Eagle-9.4%Warby Parker-5.3%Arko Corp-5.2%Sonic Automotive-5.5%The Buckle Inc-0.2%Penske Automotive-3.2%Costco Wholesale+0.2%Tractor Supply-3.9%
Nearly every stock identified last week has moved lower — confirming Quantmatix’s early warning of sector-level stress.
📉 Emerging Signals
We now have a pending Medium-Term Negative Signal for XRT, set to confirm on Friday’s close.
It’s early in the week, but the momentum is clearly deteriorating.
🧩 Seven New Pending Negative Reversals
Designer Brands (DBI) 👟
Signet Jewelers (SIG) 💍
Shoe Carnival (SCVL) 👞
Chewy Inc. (CHWY) 🐾
Camping World (CWH) ⛺
Group 1 Automotive (GPI) 🚗
CarMax Inc. (KMX) 🚘
Upbound Group Inc. (UPBD) 🏠
💡 QM Insight
“Quantmatix analytics continue to flag deterioration in U.S. retail — both in absolute and relative terms. With XRT confirming a negative weekly relative signal and most of the previously flagged names trading lower, the data underscore how early Quantmatix identified this rotation. The emergence of seven new pending reversals adds further weight to a deepening medium-term correction.”
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