💼 QM Trades – Quantmatix Insight: S&P 500 Momentum Fades as Bearish Setup Strengthens
Focus: North America | Index: S&P 500 (SPX)📅 Data as of November 4, 2025
Market Context
The latest Quantmatix data paints a clearly bearish picture for U.S. equities. The S&P 500 closed at 6,771.55, slipping further as momentum visibly decelerates.
The weekly Q Score has fallen to 3.4, a drop of 0.9 from the previous week — a sharp loss in upward velocity that historically precedes pullbacks or shallow corrections across the Quantmatix framework 📉.
This cooling momentum follows confirmed negative reversals on both daily and weekly time frames, triggered near 6,950 in late October — levels the index has since failed to reclaim. With no offsetting positive signals, zero acceleration, and zero trend exhaustion metrics, SPX currently lacks any bullish counterforce, leaving it capped beneath a tight resistance band between 6,931–6,934 (≈ +2.4% overhead).
Quantmatix Technical Picture
Support levels are now uncomfortably close:
🟢 Immediate Daily: 6,770.55 (–0.01%)
⚪ Weekly Mean: 6,718.14
🔵 Weekly Support: 6,504.69 (–3.94%)
Projected Downside Targets (Quantmatix Model):
Time FrameTarget% MoveHit RateDaily6,735–0.53%52%Daily6,691.63–1.18%41%Weekly6,357.02–6.12%46%
The system indicates a high-probability near-term dip, with potential for a deeper correction should support at 6,770 break.
A move above 6,900 (+2.9%) would invalidate this bearish setup.
Macro Context
Yesterday’s session (Nov 4) extended a volatile week driven by U.S.–China trade tensions.
Beijing’s new tariffs on American semiconductors — retaliation for Washington’s latest AI-chip export curbs — shook tech-heavy S&P sectors, which now make up over 30% of the index ⚙️💻.
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, also released on Nov 4, cited “modest growth” but persistent inflation in services and weakening consumer sentiment in the Midwest and Southeast — tempering hopes for rate cuts at the upcoming FOMC meeting (Nov 6–7).
Together, these drivers align with the Quantmatix momentum fade, mirroring a cooling of the AI enthusiasm that powered October’s rally.
The VIX jumped to 19.2, its highest since September — confirming a short-term uptick in volatility risk ⚠️.
Quantmatix Outlook
The Quantmatix dataset now reflects:
Broad momentum deterioration across all SPX time frames
A clear absence of bullish reversals
A rising probability of tests toward 6,700–6,735 in coming sessions
Strategic View: Maintain a tactically bearish stance on SPX with scaling opportunities below 6,770, partial profit zones near 6,735, and a stop level above 6,900.
Swing Trading Ideas (1–4 Weeks) 📊
Hut 8 Corp. (HUT:XNAS) Target 1 37.36 (-22.35%) Hit Rate 66.67%
MONGODB INC (MDB:XNMS) Target 1 295.21 (-17.04%) Hit Rate 58%
CAMECO CORP (CCO:XTSE) Target 1 228.02 (-6.38%) Hit Rate 64.10%
TE CONNECTIVITY (TEL:XNYS) Target 1 30.49 (-6.99%) This is based off weekly mean.
ALPHABET INC-C (GOOG:XNGS) Target 1 254.71 (-8.4%) Hit Rate 52%
Quantmatix Success Stories 🚀
Integra Lifesciences (IART:XNGS) captured 27.4% from a Short-Term Top Quantmatix negative signal on Tuesday, 28 Oct.
Vontier Corp (VNT:XNYS) yielded 12.0% profit following a Short-Term Top Quantmatix negative signal on Wednesday, 29 Oct.
These examples underline the efficacy of Quantmatix’s signal-driven analytics — translating real-time market momentum shifts into actionable trade insights with strong statistical reliability.
Summary
Quantmatix data underscores a broad short-term bearish bias across North American equities.
Momentum is fading, volatility is rising, and macro conditions continue to validate a defensive positioning into November. Unless resistance near 6,930 breaks convincingly, risk remains skewed to the downside for U.S. equities. 📉📈
Disclaimer:
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